ROKU Q4 update: Increasing our price target

Singular Research Director's Letter: November 2018


November 2018 Director’s Letter


The Correction Deepens  

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The market continued its sell off despite a couple strong rebound attempts. The China trade war fears and fed tightening continued to loom ominously over the market as investors de-risked and reduced exposure to equities.  
            Major market indices such as the S&P 500 in the DJIA struggled to stay in positive territory as the yield curve continue to flatten, triggering a recession fear sell-off as the three-year bond inverted above the five-year bond. Save a slightly tepid employment reports most economic series continued to display strength. But, as we know, the market is a forward-looking indicator, portending trouble ahead for 2019. 

Top performers for November

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Bottom performers for November

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We initiated coverage with a buy on Olympic Steel, (ZEUS), an operator of U.S based metals service centers with a growing focus on higher value- added, engineered products. We are very constructive on long term prospects for this beneficiary of Trump’s steel tariffs.
We wish our clients and friends and their families a joyous holiday season and thank all our subscribers for their continued support.Singular Research Staff

Singular Research Director's Letter: October 2018


October 2018 Director’s Letter

 Lowlights:  a triumvirate. of negatives overcomes bull market

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Nowhere to hide from the claw of the bear, or the wrath of the Fed. The new Fed chief  Powell indicated that the Fed plans on more hikes this year and next, a hawkish tone that spooked investors in October. The sell -off was deep and swift knocking most major indices approximately 10%, and individually issues 20-30%. The FAANG was hit hard for a 20% drop  

Investors are concerned about trade wars and declining earnings momentum as S&P500eps growth is expected to taper from 15% to 5% over the next two quarters. Meanwhile, GDP continues to steam ahead  at 3.5% GDP growth in Q3. 



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Singular best & worst in Oct.

Underscoring the bearish environment in October the best/worst list dominated by negative returns.

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Thank you for support.of our quest to discover forgotten,forlorned and mispriced, undercovered small and micro cap equities. We look forward to finding much more attractively valued coverage candidates in the months ahead. Happy holidays !

Singular Research Staff…



Singular Research Director's Letter: September 2018

September S& P 500 defying gravity

In September, U.S. equity markets bucked the  historical trends and another rate hike by the Fed while edging slightly higher. However, the Russell 2000 index and the Singular Research coverage list were both slightly lower in September.

Perhaps distracted by the battle regarding the Kavanaugh appointment, it seems many market participants didn't read the fine print in the FED minutes showing a shift to a more hawkish stance toward raising rates very soon.The Fed hinted at up to five more hikes between now and the end of 2019, actions that may appear to be too aggressive. And a tone that likely as of this writing in mid-October has initiated a sharp correction in US Equity markets.


Our top performers for September were an Eclectic group of stocks.

The list was led by Seabridge Gold (SA), up 14.6% benefiting from a recovery and a possible bottoming of gold related equities in September. Our second top performer was Olympic Financial (OLY .TO) up 14.3%. Olympic was bolstered by a better-than-expected earnings report spurring our analyst to his raise his price Target.
Are third best  top performer was Emerging Biosolutions ( EBS),  up 6.2%. Emergent benefited from the announcement of a significant acquisition marking their entrance in the opioid treatment business acquiring a top private company with a remedy for overdoses called Narcan.

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Singular three bottom performers were led by Huttig Building Products, (HBP), off 18.5% Huttig was hurt by the recent hike in interest rates which slows down demand for housing. Our second worst performer was Harvard Bioscinces, (HBIO), down 11.8%. Harvard appeared to be impacted by uncertainties caused by the departure of its CFO and light profit-taking. Are Third worst performer was Salem Media Group (SALM) down 11-75.  Salem has been struggling most of the year adjusting is portfolio of stations ridding itself of lower-performing stations while focusing on top performers.

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We hosted our Midwestern values conference in Dallas on September 20th featuring ten exciting growth and value ideas. In attendance were top local and regional fund managers, the conference was viewed as an outstanding success.
We thank our clients for their support and input as we move forward in the fourth quarter and  toward what we believe will be a strong finish to 2018.

Singular Research 

Market Indicators & Strategy Report Feb. 1, 2015

MMI 20150201a

MMI 20150201b


Singular Research Director’s Letter : August 2018

An Unheralded Record

Singular list tops S&P 500 but lags Russell 2000 in August.



Last Month


Trailing 12 Mo’s





S&P 500








Meanwhile, the S&P 500 set a record for duration of a bull market exceeding 10 years. In August, measured from its lows at 666 this represents an eye-popping 330 % return.
However, if you were among the unfortunate whom invested in the tech bubble in the year 2000 when the S&P 500 floated at the 1500 level your returns are a much less impressive + 90%. Or a price appreciation of about 4% per year.

Despite near-record optimism and employment on top of a record bull market, professional money managers believe this is the peak. More than 58% of them believe that 2019 will be a down year. 
Many seem to be underestimating the earnings power that has been unleashed by tax cuts and deregulation.


Symbol Rating Target Month Return Comment
CTRL BUY  $30.00


 Beat & raise, provides year end guidance
NVEE BUY  $ 52.00


 Beat & raise, raises year end guidance
QNST BUY  $ 16.75


 Rebound from post eps report sell-off
EBS BUY  $60.00


 Makes announcement of large acquisition
HBP BUY  $ 9.75


 Better than expected revenues

In August, our top performer was Control 4 (CTRL) + 27.4%  an emerging leader in smart home technology topped earnings forecasts and guided for solid numbers into 2019. NV5 (NVEE), popped + 17.5%. NV5, an environmental and energy Focused E&C firm topped expectations and guided higher. NVEE, one of our top picks over the last two years nearly tripling. New initiation, Quinstreet, a leader in digital marketing (QNST) ticked up 14.4%.

Symbol Rating Target Month Return Comment
SALM BUY  $ 9.00


 Gives back prior month’s gain on weak earnings report
BLX BUY  $33.65


 Misses estimates ,higher than expected costs
HNNA BUY  $23.75


 Aum outflows offset small acquisition
DAKT BUY  $12.00


 Lower backlogs projected
GASS BUY  $ 6.00


 Profit taking

Salem Media (SALM) lead to the downside falling – 22.2%, reversing much of the gains from the previous two months as earnings disappointed again. Banco Latino Americano (BLX) was off 13% as lower spreads from higher interest rates hurt net income. HNNA fell 7.4% as continued Capital outflows pressured earnings.

Please join us September 20th in Dallas for our Midwestern values conference where will be focusing on several of the names mentioned above and other under covered, under followed and misunderstood situations that we believe can perform exceptionally well over the next 12 months. Visit

At singular research we wish to thank our clients and followers for their continued commitment and support of our unbiased Independence research.

Singular Research Staff

Trecora Resources (TREC:BUY Long-term) TREC’s second quarter FY:18 EPS came below expectations due to reduced customer demand

5-SEP-18 – Trecora Resources (TREC:BUY) TREC’s second quarter FY:18 EPS came below expectations due to reduced customer demand and higher operating costs, while gross margin sank again on higher feedstock costs. We are maintaining our price target of $15.00 per share and our rating at Buy-Long Term.


  • TREC’s total revenue grew by 9.6% to $68.1 million in Q2:18. Petrochemical revenues at South Hampton Resources (SHR) rose 9.9% to $57.8 million attributable to higher prices despite lower volumes. Trecora Chemicals (TC) sales rose $0.75 million.
  • Gross profit fell to $8.1 vs. $11.1 million, as gross margin decreased to 12.0% in Q2:18 from 17.9% in the year earlier quarter. This was primarily the result rising feedstock costs not fully recovered in sales prices, and higher operating costs.
  • Adjusted EBITDA (excluding equity in AMAK earnings/losses and share based compensation) decreased to $6.2 million in Q2:18 from $8.4 million in the year earlier quarter.
  • Net Profit attributable to TREC in Q2:18 was $2.2 million or $0.09 per diluted share, compared with $0.8 million or $0.03 per diluted share in Q2:17. Adjusted net income (excl. AMAK equity profit in both years and one-time incentive compensation reversal this year) was $0.8 million or $0.03 per diluted share vs. $3.0 million or $0.12.
  • We are lowering our EPS estimates for 2018 to $0.49 while raising our 2019 estimate to $0.86, and maintain our price target at $15.00 and our recommendation of BUY- Long Term.

Singular Research Director’s Letter : July 2018

EARNINGS Trump Tariff Talk

The singular coverage list nudged ahead beating the benchmark in July.
The Singular coverage list was up 2.13 % vs. 1.50% for the Russell 2000 and 3.39% for the S&P 500 as big caps led driven by strong earnings reports.

  Last Month YTD Trailing 12 Mo’s  
SINGULAR LIST 2.13% -0.05% 7.38%  
S&P 500 3.39% 4.77% 13.39%  
RUSSELL 2000 1.50% 7.85% 16.20%  

Trump continues to talk tough on trade, calling out China, Europe, Mexico, and Canada recently. The market doesn’t seem too disturbed, taking it all in stride and to the dismay of a mainstream media which is decrying the dire circumstances these tariffs will create for the global economy.
Most investors see this as Trump technique, with an initial extreme position taken, then moving towards the center, in pursuit of a positive outcome for U.S economic objectives.

Earnings continue to impress

With the second quarter nearly in the books, eps surprises have been dominate as
79% of S&P 500 companies have beaten the estimates. This will mark one of the highest beat ratios since the year 2000. Top EPS beaters for Singular include:  Anika Therapeutics (ANIK), +105%, Control 4 (CTRL) +29% and Emergent Bio solutions (EBS) + 21% above  Street consensus estimates.


 Cracks in the dynasty

Facebook (FB), Netflix NFLX, and Twitter (TWTR) all disappointed on MAU growth and offered disappointing guidance.  Is the possible plateauing of this metric a harbinger of flattening growth ahead? These social media glamour heroes have been knocked down nearly 20% as of late. The strategy of buy the FAANG and go away, may be losing luster and coming to an end which would bode favorably for the rest of the market as investors seek out other stock plays to provide Alpha.


Top winners and losers.

National mortgage insurance Holdings (NMIH) was top performer, driven by strong earnings and a debt capital raise that increased earnings capacity. EVIO Inc.
(EVIO), was the weakest performer as capital was reallocated to larger caps with stronger near term fundamentals.


Symbol Rating Target Month Return Comment
NMIH BUY  $  17.50 28.2% strong eps and guidance
ANIK BUY  $  60.00 25.1% relief rally from oversold condition on better than expected eps
TRNS BUY  $  20.00 20.9% strong eps beat . Higher margins from cost reductions
NVEE BUY  $  52.00 8.7%  
EBS BUY  $  60.00 7.7%  


Symbol Rating Target Month Return Comment
EVIO BUY  $2.00                 -22.0% continued decline from disappointing near term execution
HNNA BUY  $  23.75 -9.8% profit talking on in line quarter
LYTS BUY  $9.80                 -8.4% C-level departs creating selling pressures
QNST BUY  $  16.75 -7.7%  
GASS BUY  $6.00                 -5.3%  

New initiations

We launched coverage on Internet marketing specialist Quinstreet Inc. (QNST), a firm that is well positioned to capitalize on the ongoing shift from traditional to digital ad spending, and also on Geospace Technologies Corp. (GEOS), a leading manufacturer of seismic equipment for the oil and gas exploration industry which we believe is in the beginning stages of a significant turnaround.

At Singular Research we wish to thank our clients and followers for their continued commitment and support of our unbiased, independence research model as we strive to consistently deliver Alpha generated from the lack of coverage outperformance anomaly.


Singular Research